Meta is reportedly developing a new prediction markets app called Arena as it looks to enter one of the fastest-growing segments in online finance and consumer apps. Prediction markets let users forecast the outcome of real-world events such as elections, sports matches, economic decisions, and entertainment news.
The category has grown rapidly over the past year, with leading platforms Polymarket and Kalshi generating more than $130 billion in trading volume in 2026, highlighting the rising demand for event-based forecasting.
Arena is expected to compete directly with Polymarket and Kalshi, but Meta is taking a different approach at launch. According to reports, the app will initially use a points-based system instead of real money trading. It is also being developed as a standalone app, although Meta could use Facebook, Instagram, and Threads to bring users to the platform in the future.
The project reflects CEO Mark Zuckerberg’s strategy of expanding beyond Meta’s core social media products and investing in new consumer experiences. While Arena is still under development and has not been officially announced, Meta’s reported move shows that prediction markets are no longer a niche product. They are becoming a mainstream category that even the world’s largest technology companies want to be part of.
What is Arena by Meta?
Arena is reportedly being developed as a standalone mobile app instead of a feature inside Facebook, Instagram, or Threads. The app will let users make predictions on the outcome of real-world events, including politics, sports, business, entertainment, and major global news.
Users will earn points based on how accurate their predictions are, creating a competitive forecasting experience without using real money at launch.
According to reports, Meta plans to launch Arena with a points-based system to avoid the regulatory challenges that come with real-money prediction markets.
NEW: Meta is developing a standalone prediction-market style app, internally dubbed “Arena,” inspired by the rapid growth of Polymarket and Kalshi.
The app would initially use a points-based system rather than real-money wagering, though Meta has not ruled out betting features… pic.twitter.com/fpuHr4Czq4
— Frank Chaparro (@fintechfrank) June 23, 2026
However, the company could explore real-money markets in the future if regulations allow. Meta is also expected to use its AI capabilities to recommend trending prediction topics, create new markets around breaking events, and personalize the experience for users, making Arena more dynamic than traditional prediction platforms.
Challenges Meta Will Face
While the prediction market industry is growing rapidly, it is also attracting greater scrutiny from regulators and law enforcement. As real money becomes part of these platforms, questions around gambling, market fairness, and the misuse of sensitive information become much harder to ignore.
If Meta eventually expands Arena beyond its planned points-based system, it will face many of the same challenges that companies like Polymarket and Kalshi are already dealing with.
One of the biggest debates is whether prediction markets should be treated as forecasting tools or online gambling products. Different countries are taking different approaches, creating regulatory uncertainty for companies that want to operate globally. Meta will also need strong systems to prevent misinformation, since markets based on breaking news or political events can quickly spread false claims or reward misleading content.
Another major concern is market manipulation and insider trading. In April 2026, the U.S. Department of Justice charged an active-duty Army soldier with using classified information about a military operation to place bets on Polymarket, allegedly making more than $400,000 in profits.
More recently, prosecutors also charged a Google engineer with using confidential company information to earn $1.2 million through prediction market bets. These cases show that prediction markets can become targets for people with access to non-public information, increasing pressure on platforms to strengthen monitoring and compliance.
For Meta, the challenge will go beyond building the technology. The company will need to convince regulators that Arena is a responsible forecasting platform while ensuring its AI systems, moderation tools, and market rules prevent abuse at scale. That may prove to be just as difficult as attracting users in the first place.
